The Simon-Ehrlich Bet Store

Have fun starting a conversation about human flourishing on an infinitely bountiful planet.

We’re pleased to announce the new Simon Ehrlich Bet Store. Now you can sport a shirt or mug with Ken Fallon’s famous Wall Street Journal illustration of Paul Ehrlich handing over a check for $576.07 to Julian Simon. They’re a great way to start a conversation about human flourishing on an infinitely bountiful planet. Just click on the product you like to see details.

In 1968 the Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich published The Population Bomb, where he predicted mass starvation and a world of increasing resource scarcity. Julian Simon was a business economics professor and questioned Ehrlich’s predictions in an article published in Science magazine. The debate between the two became highly contentious and personal. In 1980 Simon became so frustrated that he offered to bet Ehrlich on the future. He told Ehrlich to pick any resource and Simon would bet that it would become more abundant in the future (adjusted for inflation). Ehrlich jumped at the opportunity and selected five non-renewable metals: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. The wager placed $200 on each of the five metals for a total of $1,000. The length was set for 10 years from September 29, 1980 to September 29, 1990. If prices went up, Simon paid Ehrlich the difference. If prices went down, Ehrlich paid Simon the difference.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), inflation from 1980 to 1990 increased by 58 percent. This means $1,000 was now $1,580. So what did it cost to buy the five metal basket in September 29, 1990? The nominal price had hardly moved at all, increasing from $1,000.00 to $1,003.93. The difference between $1,580 and $1,003.93 came to $576.07, or a decline of around 36 percent. That was the amount that Ehrlich mailed to Simon in the form of a personal check, signed by his wife, on October 11, 1990. Behold, one of the most important checks ever written in economics:

After receiving the check, Simon offered to bet again, this time for $20,000. Ehrlich wisely refused.

This 36 percent drop in the inflation-adjusted price means that compared to 1980 you would get 56 percent more for your money in 1990. According to the World Bank, from 1980 to 1990 global population increased 19.6 percent, from 4.444 billion people to 5.316 billion people. Every one percent increase in population corresponded to a 2.86 percent increase in the abundance of the five-metal basket (56 ÷ 19.6 = 2.86).

We recently reviewed this five-metal basket and found that from 1990 to 2022 the time price had decreased by 84.5 percent. In 2022 you would get 546 percent more for the same time in 1990. Since 1990 global population has increased by 50 percent. Every one percent increase in population corresponded to a 10.92 percent increase in the abundance of the five-metal basket. Abundance is increasing at an increasing rate.

Please order a t-shirt or mug and share the ideas and facts of Julian Simon and Superabundance with your friends and family. There has never been a better time to create more life.

Gale Pooley is a Senior Fellow at the Discovery Institute, an Adjunct Scholar at the Cato Institute, and a board member at Human Progress.